Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas has repeatedly tied any discussion of disarmament to a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a ceasefire that holds, and broader political guarantees, rather than signalling a standalone willingness to give up its weapons. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even enter disarmament talks without assurances on Israeli withdrawal, while BBC and Jerusalem Post coverage in 2026 described Hamas as rejecting disarmament proposals and insisting on conditions such as a complete pullback, aid access, and a governance transition first.[2][1][5][8]

That history helps explain why the market is pricing **0% YES**: the contract requires an official Hamas announcement by 31 December 2025, and the public record points the other way. Comparable cases show the gap between partial tactical flexibility and formal disarmament is large; AP reported Hamas was *considering* a phased decommissioning proposal, but even that framework still envisaged staged surrender of heavy weapons, tunnel maps, and phased Israeli withdrawals rather than a clear unconditional renunciation.[6] ECFR likewise noted Hamas’s long-standing position that it would not disarm or surrender light weapons absent a final political settlement.[11][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are mediator statements, any updated ceasefire text, and whether phase-one requirements are actually completed. Reuters and other recent reports say Hamas is conditioning further talks on Israeli withdrawal and implementation of first-phase commitments, while coverage in June and July highlighted disputes over tunnel maps, personal weapons, and the scope of any “disarmament” language.[4][17][8] If there is a meaningful move, it is more likely to appear as a phased or conditional formula in talks backed by the Board of Peace or other mediators than as a direct, public Hamas declaration accepting disarmament outright.[6][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.