Haiti vs. Scotland

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June 2026. The prediction market currently prices Haiti's victory at 62% implied probability, a notably aggressive assessment given Scotland's UEFA ranking (currently 37th) versus Haiti's CONCACAF standing (ranked 66th by FIFA). Traditional sportsbooks have not yet published fixed odds on this fixture, though early lookahead lines from major operators typically favour Scotland at around 1.80–2.00, suggesting roughly 50–55% implied probability for a Scottish win. The 7–12 percentage-point gap between the prediction market's Haiti lean and conventional bookmaker consensus warrants scrutiny, particularly given the market's tendency to overweight recent tournament performance or underestimate established confederation strength.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison; Haiti last qualified for the World Cup in 1974, whilst Scotland's most recent appearance was 1998. Both nations have undergone significant squad turnover and coaching changes since their last competitive tournaments. Qualification routes differ substantially—Haiti secured a CONCACAF playoff berth in 2024, whilst Scotland qualified through UEFA's standard pathway—making direct strength comparison difficult. The prediction market's 62% may reflect Haiti's home-confederation advantage in a neutral venue or an expectation of Scottish underperformance under pressure.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, particularly regarding Scotland's key midfield and attacking personnel. Fixture congestion in the preceding club season and any late managerial changes could shift the underlying probability materially. The settlement window closes 01:00 GMT on 14 June, allowing minimal post-match arbitrage opportunity.

Methodology

This page reviews Haiti vs. Scotland across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.