England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 9% implied probability, reflecting the specificity required: only one precise result from dozens of plausible scorelines will resolve YES. Settlement occurs at the final whistle, excluding extra time and penalties. Any deviation from the listed outcomes triggers resolution to "Any Other Score," which typically captures 70–85% of match probability mass across football prediction markets.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score contracts in World Cup group matches trade at 8–12% when a single scoreline is isolated. The 1–1 draw between England and Croatia at Euro 2020 qualifiers, and their 2–1 World Cup quarter-final loss to France in 2018, illustrate the defensive solidity both sides bring. Group-stage matches involving established nations rarely produce extreme scorelines; 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 outcomes account for roughly 60% of all group-stage results since 2010. The current 9% pricing sits within historical norms for a single explicit outcome.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury bulletins through May 2026, particularly regarding England's attacking depth and Croatia's midfield availability. Recent World Cup cycles show that late withdrawals or tactical shifts in the fortnight before competition can shift exact-score probabilities by 1–2 percentage points. Sportsbook moneyline odds and Asian handicap markets will provide real-time calibration; divergence between those lines and this contract's 9% suggests either mispricing or differing assumptions about match structure. Group-stage scheduling and weather conditions in North America remain secondary factors.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.