WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil will settle on 11 June 2026 at some closing price, and this contract asks whether that price will exceed a specified threshold. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests either the threshold is set well above current forward expectations or there is minimal trading activity in this particular contract variant. WTI futures for June 2026 delivery currently trade in the $70–$80 range depending on geopolitical risk and OPEC+ production decisions, though the exact strike price for this market remains unspecified in the available details.

Historical precedent shows WTI rarely sustains extreme valuations beyond a single trading session without fundamental shifts in supply or demand. During 2022, crude spiked above $120 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, yet retreated within weeks as markets repriced. The 2020 collapse to negative prices occurred under unique storage-constraint conditions unlikely to recur. If the threshold sits materially above $90, the 0% reading reflects genuine scarcity of bullish positioning; if it sits below $70, the absence of YES volume may indicate the market views the outcome as near-certain and thus uninteresting to trade.

Traders should monitor OPEC+ production announcements scheduled for late 2025 and early 2026, US inventory reports (released weekly by the EIA), and any geopolitical escalation in the Middle East or Russia–Ukraine conflict. The US Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory through early 2026 will also influence crude demand forecasts. Settlement occurs after the New York close on 11 June 2026, using the WTI front-month contract price published by the US Energy Information Administration.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.