What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

August 2026 WTI is a futures settlement question, and the live market here is pricing only a **1%** chance of the contract reaching the listed level, which is far below the range implied by most public forecasts. The August WTI futures quote shown by one market data source is about **$68.50**, while several sell-side and survey-based 2026 views cluster much higher, including Reuters’ latest analyst poll at **$84.63** for 2026 WTI and Goldman’s revised call for **$75** in Q4 2026[18][12][7]. That gap suggests the prediction market is treating the target as an extreme tail outcome rather than a base case.

Historically, comparable read-throughs on crude markets have been dominated by supply shocks and macro demand swings rather than smooth convergence to consensus forecasts. The EIA’s 2026 outlook has been notably lower than many Wall Street calls, with one STEO version putting WTI at **$47.77** for 2026, while BMO has recently forecast **$60** and J.P. Morgan has cited **$54** in a baseline scenario[11][9][8]. By contrast, Reuters’ May poll and Goldman’s post-Hormuz revisions sit much higher, showing how fast oil expectations can reprice when geopolitical supply risk changes[12][7].

For traders, the key catalysts are OPEC+ quota decisions, any disruption or normalisation in Middle East shipping, and the weekly US inventory cycle that feeds the front month. The EIA’s latest STEO was released on **9 June**, and its assumptions on the Strait of Hormuz matter because they materially change the path for Brent and, by extension, WTI sentiment[1]. Goldman’s recent cut after a deal to reopen the strait is a reminder that headline risk can shift the whole curve quickly, while the usual inventory prints and refinery maintenance schedule will shape whether August expiry trades closer to current futures levels or breaks out on a supply shock[7][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.