Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles’s SoFi Stadium, the United States men’s national team will face Türkiye in the final Group D match of the FIFA World Cup, with the contest’s first 45 minutes plus stoppage time determining the halftime outcome. The prediction market for a Türkiye lead at halftime currently implies a 0% probability, a stark divergence from sportsbook lines that still offer modest odds for a home win and from analyst consensus, which views the match as a tight contest where either side could strike early.

Historically, such 0% implied probabilities in World Cup halftime markets have rarely held when one team returns after a long absence; Türkiye’s first World Cup appearance in 24 years was followed by a 2–0 loss to Australia, yet their recent group-stage form shows resilience, including a 2–1 lead over the USA in a prior encounter where Orkun Kökçü scored at the 31st minute[1]. Comparable cases suggest that even when a team is eliminated from knockout contention, early momentum can still shift, making the current zero probability an outlier that traders should scrutinise against live odds movements.

Traders must monitor Christian Pulisic’s fitness status, as his near-full clearance ahead of the match indicates he may influence the USA’s early attacking shape, though his bench placement in warm-ups remains uncertain[3]. Key dependencies include the official line-ups released before kick-off, any pre-match injury announcements, and the timing of stoppage time, which could extend the first half beyond 45 minutes. Recent reports confirm the USA aims to wrap up group play with a win, while Türkiye seeks its first group-stage victory, adding tactical urgency to both sides’ early approaches[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.