Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Market context

Tunisia face Japan in a Group F World Cup meeting that sits inside a market implying a **3%** chance of an exact scoreline landing. That is a very low number even by exact-score standards, and it should be read against both the two-match win-draw-loss market and the broader correct-score pricing: ESPN’s match board shows Japan as a clear moneyline favourite at **-190**, with Tunisia **+600** and the draw **+310**, which points to Japan dominance but not to any single score being remotely common. FIFA’s own match page also frames Japan as the more confident side, while the head-to-head record favours Japan **3-1** across four meetings, including a **2-0** Japan win in October 2023 and a **3-0** Tunisia win in June 2022.[2][4][1]

For traders, the key comparison is between the market’s tiny exact-score probability and the much broader consensus that Japan are likelier to control the game than Tunisia. Flashscore notes the match is at Estadio BBVA and describes Tunisia as needing a response, but still sees Japan as the stronger side; that aligns with the sportsbook view, not with any expectation of a high-scoring shootout.[3] The main catalysts are the final line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether either side changes approach based on the group table, because exact-score contracts are especially sensitive to whether a favourite plays conservatively or pushes for goal difference. If the opening phase is tight, 1-0 or 2-0 Japan outcomes tend to attract more attention than more extreme scorelines, while an early goal would quickly shift attention towards wider score distributions.[2][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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