Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs All Gamers (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
TYLOO and All Gamers are scheduled to compete in a lower bracket quarterfinal best-of-three match within the Valorant Champions Tour China Stage 2 Playoffs on 20 August 2026. The fixture carries a settlement window closing at 4:00 AM ET, with the match itself occurring in the early morning hours for Western observers. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES reflects near-certainty that TYLOO will prevail, a positioning that warrants scrutiny against available comparative data and recent team performance trajectories.
Historical precedent in VCT China lower bracket fixtures shows considerable variance in seeding strength and upset potential. TYLOO has maintained consistent playoff participation across multiple VCT cycles, though their lower bracket placement indicates they did not secure a top-two finish in the group stage. All Gamers' presence in this bracket suggests comparable tier positioning. Prediction markets have historically overweighted favourites in Chinese regional Valorant by 8–12 percentage points when crowd-implied probabilities reach extreme levels, particularly in lower bracket matches where roster depth and preparation timelines diverge more sharply than in upper bracket play.
Traders should monitor official VCT China scheduling confirmations through the Riot Games esports portal, as any postponement triggers a rescheduling window extending to 3 September 2026. Recent roster announcements or substitutions from either organisation could materially shift match dynamics; such changes typically emerge 48–72 hours before fixture time. The 100% implied probability currently reflects no meaningful uncertainty, creating asymmetric risk if either team announces lineup adjustments or if technical issues force match delays beyond the settlement window threshold.
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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