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LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Game 1 Winner 100% Match Winner 82% Game 2 Winner 65% Game Handicap: VKS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) 62% Volume: $127K Liquidity: $188K Closes: 5 Sept 2026
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LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Match Winner82%
Game 2 Winner65%
Game Handicap: VKS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)62%
O/U 3.5 Games61%
Game 3 Winner60%
Game 4 Winner57%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Game Handicap: VKS (-2.5) vs paiN Gaming (+2.5)50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?42%
Odd/Even Total Kills40%
O/U 4.5 Games32%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?28%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?0%

Market context

The LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper Bracket Quarterfinals 2 match between Vivo Keyd Stars and paiN Gaming in the CBLOL Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market …

Methodology

We track LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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