LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

Market context

Anyone’s Legend face EDward Gaming in a best-of-three LPL Group Ascend match, and the market is pricing AL as a clear favourite at about **77%** to win. That sits a little below Kalshi’s **85%** and in line with a broader favourites’ position on bookmaker boards, where Sportsbet lists Anyone’s Legend at **1.17** versus EDG at **5.00** and Polymarket shows a similarly one-sided contract. [8][5][2]

The main historical reference point is the recent head-to-head: Anyone’s Legend beat EDward Gaming **3-0** in the same split in late May, which supports the market’s bullish view on AL’s map edge and match control. Bo3 pricing also implies the market expects a relatively clean result rather than a tight three-game series, with Sportsbet’s correct-score line making **AL 2-0** the shortest outcome at **1.65**, ahead of **AL 2-1** at **3.50**. [7][5]

For traders, the key catalyst is simply whether the listed start time holds and both line-ups are confirmed without late substitution or schedule changes; this market resolves to **50-50** if the match is not played, tied, or pushed beyond the seven-day window. Predict and Kalshi both have the fixture scheduled for **31 July**, but the differing start-time listings and live scheduling updates are the kind of detail that can matter when markets are this heavily skewed. [4][8][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.