Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A

Platform comparison

Market context

Yellow Submarine’s Group A match against Execration at the Games of the Future is listed for 05:00 UTC, and the event page on Robinhood currently prices Yellow Submarine at 54¢ versus 46¢ for Execration, which is a sharp contrast with this contract’s 100% YES crowd-implied probability.[17][12] That gap matters because the market appears to be treating the match as near-certain, while the sportsbook-style pricing still implies a modest edge rather than a locked outcome.[13][17]

Historically, comparable BO3 group-stage Dota 2 fixtures rarely justify a true certainty unless one side is withdrawing, disqualified, or the fixture has already been resolved elsewhere; Liquipedia still shows Group A as a live standings section with no completed results embedded in the tournament overview, which fits an ordinary early-stage match rather than a settled one.[18] A recent preview on Teamsmurf described the series as an “awkward opener for a replacement team, but not a free win for either side”, which is consistent with a market where analyst tone is more cautious than a 100% contract reading.[20]

Traders should watch for schedule slips, official start confirmation and any tournament-side changes to the Group A slate, because several live fixtures pages list the game at 05:00 UTC while others show 05:30 or 08:00 localised entries, a sign that timing can move across feeds.[1][6][8][9][12] The key catalyst is whether the series starts and finishes normally before the settlement window closes; if it is postponed beyond seven days or abandoned, the contract can still resolve 50-50 under the market rules, so pre-match cancellations or a no-show would matter more here than the pre-match hype.[Market rules]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.