Dota 2: Team Yandex vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Team Yandex face HULIGANI in a best-of-three Dota 2 match during The International group stage on 13 August 2026. The fixture is scheduled for 01:00 ET, with settlement closing at 13:20 UTC the same day. The market currently reflects 100% implied probability for a decisive outcome, suggesting traders expect the match to proceed as scheduled and reach a conclusion within the settlement window.

Historical precedent from International qualifiers and group stages shows that matches rarely fail to complete once they begin, though technical delays and server issues have occasionally pushed fixtures beyond their original time slots. When comparing this contract against typical sportsbook offerings for International matches, the absence of alternative lines (draw, no-play) in traditional betting markets often creates divergence with prediction-market structures that explicitly price cancellation or tie scenarios at 50-50. The current crowd probability of 100% YES effectively discounts the risk of postponement, suggesting market participants view the scheduled timing as firm.

Traders should monitor official International schedule confirmations and any roster changes announced by either organisation in the week preceding the match. Dota 2 patch updates released before group play can shift team preparation timelines, though rarely trigger postponements. The settlement window closes seven hours after the scheduled start time, creating a tight margin for matches that extend into overtime or face minor technical delays. Any announcement of venue or broadcast infrastructure issues would be the primary catalyst for repricing this contract away from its current consensus level.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Team Yandex vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.