Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs largadosypelados (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-3.5) vs largadosypelados (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-6.5) vs largadosypelados (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-3.5) vs largadosypelados (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-6.5) vs largadosypelados (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-9.5) vs largadosypelados (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-12.5) vs largadosypelados (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
Market context
The lower-bracket quarter-final between largadosypelados and BESTIA is priced very differently across venues: the crowd market shows **0% YES** for largadosypelados, while Strafe users have been heavily skewed to **BESTIA** at roughly **92%** and the match pages that surfaced for the same pairing show BESTIA as a clear favourite in a Bo3. That is consistent with the limited head-to-head record available in the search results, where BESTIA won both recent meetings listed against largadosypelados, including a 2-1 series in CCT South America and an earlier 2-0 result in ESL Challenger League South America. [13][10][8]
For traders, the main catalysts are operational rather than form-based: whether the fixture is actually played on schedule, whether the bracket timing shifts, and whether any adjacent upper-bracket result changes the live sequencing of the lower bracket. Tournament pages place the qualifier window across late July and early August, with the same event ecosystem listing best-of-three playoff matches and a double-elimination format, so postponement risk matters because this contract rolls to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed more than seven days without a winner. [3][4][5] The market description also ties settlement to a specific scheduled slot, initially 31 July at 4:30pm ET, so any revised start time, walkover, or schedule reset would be more important here than in a straight moneyline market. [1][12]
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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