NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House election is set to take place on 23 June 2026, with Micah Lasher currently leading polls but facing a crowded field including Jack Schlossberg, Alex Bores, and George Conway. A prediction market on this contest shows a 1% implied probability that Lasher will not win the nomination, a stark divergence from sportsbook lines and analyst consensus which largely treat his victory as near-certain.

Historically, primaries with multiple high-profile candidates and significant funding—such as New York’s 2018 14th District race—have occasionally produced unexpected outcomes, yet those cases typically involved weaker incumbents or clearer voter dissatisfaction. In NY-12, Lasher’s strong grassroots backing and early poll leads mirror more stable nomination scenarios, suggesting the 1% market probability may reflect overreaction to noise rather than genuine risk.

Traders should monitor official candidate announcements, fundraising reports from the FEC, and late shifts in polling data, particularly as the primary date approaches. Recent coverage in The New Yorker notes the race is “awash with money but short on belief,” highlighting potential volatility if voter enthusiasm fails to materialise despite heavy spending [6]. Any sudden withdrawal or replacement of a top contender could also reshape the field before the settlement window closes on 23 November 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.