Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House, yet the market assigns a 9% chance he will resign or be removed before the end of 2026. This Polymarket implied probability diverges sharply from Kalshi’s estimate of nearly 28.7% for impeachment and removal in his second term, while many political analysts on Reddit and Rabobank deem removal virtually impossible due to Republican Senate control[1][2][3]. The gap between prediction-market odds and sportsbook-style lines suggests traders are pricing in a low-probability but high-impact constitutional crisis, whereas traditional analysts lean on historical precedent that conviction rarely follows impeachment.

Historically, no US president has been removed via impeachment and conviction; Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached but not convicted, while Richard Nixon resigned before impeachment. The 25th Amendment has never been invoked to remove a sitting president, and even with Democratic House majority, Senate support for Trump makes conviction unlikely[2][7]. These precedents frame the 9% market probability as an outlier, reflecting either a speculative bet on a sudden political shift or a mispricing relative to the structural barriers to removal.

Traders should monitor the House impeachment inquiry schedule, any Cabinet moves to invoke the 25th Amendment, and shifts in Republican Senate loyalty. Recent reports confirm Democrats have launched an impeachment inquiry, though conviction remains improbable without Senate defection[2]. Watch for announcements from the White House or Vice President, as any formal resignation or removal notice before 31 December 2026 instantly resolves the market to “Yes”, regardless of when the effect takes place[3]. The settlement window closes at 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z, making timing of any political announcement critical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.