What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?

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Market context

WTI crude is trading around the high-$90s per barrel, with CME’s June 2026 WTI contract last quoted at 99.03 and Barchart showing the May 2026 contract also near that level. Against that backdrop, a 1% crowd-implied probability for any May print by the contract’s upper bands looks very thin rather than out of line with the broader curve: the market is already close to the low three figures, but the next few dollars require either a fresh supply shock or a rapid easing of recent geopolitical risk. Analyst consensus is more restrained. J.P. Morgan still sees Brent averaging about $60/bbl in 2026, underlining that the forward strip assumes softer fundamentals once temporary disruption fears fade.

The key comparison is with recent volatility rather than long-run averages. WTI was above $116/bbl at the start of May, then sold off sharply as tensions around Iran eased and traders priced a better chance of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Barchart reported on 20 May that crude “plummeted” after President Trump said the US was in the “final stages” with Iran, while a mixed EIA inventory report added to the pressure. For this contract, traders should watch US-Iran headline risk, OPEC+ compliance and any output guidance, plus the next EIA weekly stock and products figures. The odds remain highly sensitive to whether the market keeps treating Hormuz risk as temporary or as a persistent supply premium.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.