How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve’s 2026 path is still being priced as a limited-easing story, but the market is now split between **one cut, two cuts, or none** rather than a larger campaign. At **87% YES**, this contract is implying a strong expectation of at least the named outcome, yet that sits above several published forecasts: Morningstar says markets are pricing **50bp of easing, or two 25bp cuts**, while Bankrate and Morgan Stanley also lean towards **two cuts**[2][3][12]. By contrast, Goldman Sachs has pushed its expected cuts out to **2027**, and JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have argued for **no cuts in 2026** at all[8][10][17]. That divergence matters because the contract settles on the exact number of 25bp moves, so even a single surprise hold, late-year cut, or emergency move can shift the outcome materially.

History and comparable policy calls suggest traders should treat this as a distributional market, not a simple yes/no on easing. The Fed’s own 2026 dot plot has been notably hawkish at points this year, with the June meeting producing a unanimous hold and a median projection that implied no urgency to cut, even as some officials still saw reductions later on[7]. That creates a wider gap between official guidance and market pricing than in a standard easing cycle, which is why prediction-market contracts on Fed moves often stay volatile until the final few meetings of the year. Reuters also reported in April that economists were leaning towards delay rather than rapid easing, underscoring how sensitive the path remains to inflation and growth data[6].

The main catalysts are the remaining FOMC meetings, fresh inflation prints, and any shift in labour-market momentum before year-end. The market will also react to any change in Fed communication around whether policy is still restrictive enough to justify cuts, particularly after the June hold and the updated year-end projections[7]. Because this contract counts **emergency inter-meeting cuts** as well, any unexpected stress event would matter immediately, although that is a low-frequency tail risk rather than the base case.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.