2nd largest company end of May?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

By the May 31 close, the market will be settled on which listed company is the world’s second-largest by market value. Polymarket is showing Alphabet as the clear favourite at about 92%, with Apple far behind on roughly 7%, while the prompt’s crowd-implied probability for a Yes outcome is effectively zero. That is a wider gap than in many large-cap ranking markets, where the leader tends to be obvious but the runner-up can still move on a single session’s price action, index rebalancing or a sharp move in mega-cap tech.

Recent comparables suggest the ranking has been relatively sticky. Market-cap lists published this month still place Nvidia first, with Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon filling the next slots, which is consistent with the current Polymarket pricing and with analyst-style rankings that have not shown a strong case for an upset. The key difference versus earlier year-end and month-end contracts is that the second-place spot is now being framed as a two-name race, but the odds are not close enough to imply much disagreement between market and broader consensus.

The main catalysts are straightforward: Nvidia, Alphabet and Apple earnings, any guidance that moves shares materially before the settlement window closes, and broad tech-sector sentiment into month-end. For this contract, the relevant dependency is not just absolute market capitalisation but the ranking at the market close, so a late-session move can matter if the gap narrows. TradingKey’s May 2026 market-cap round-up still shows Nvidia well ahead and Alphabet above Apple, which makes an Alphabet hold the base case unless there is an earnings surprise, a sharp multiple re-rating, or a broader sell-off that changes the order before 31 May.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.