What price will Bitcoin hit on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price movement on a single calendar day remains one of the most volatile and difficult-to-predict variables in crypto markets. The settlement window closing on 26 May 2026 captures a 24-hour window roughly 18 months forward, making this a medium-term directional bet rather than a short-term scalp. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests either extreme scepticism about a specific price threshold being named, or insufficient liquidity and clarity around what constitutes a "hit" in settlement terms.

Historical precedent shows single-day Bitcoin moves of 10–15% occur roughly once per quarter during normal market conditions, whilst moves exceeding 20% cluster around major regulatory announcements, exchange collapses, or macroeconomic shocks. The 2022 FTX collapse and 2020 March liquidation cascade both produced intraday swings exceeding 25%. Current volatility regimes, measured via 30-day realised volatility, sit near 40–50% annualised, suggesting the underlying asset retains capacity for outsized daily moves. Without knowing the specific price target embedded in this contract's YES condition, traders should anchor expectations to historical percentile moves rather than directional conviction alone.

Catalysts through May 2026 include US Federal Reserve policy shifts, potential Bitcoin spot ETF flows, and regulatory developments around stablecoin frameworks in major jurisdictions. The absence of a named price threshold in public market descriptions creates settlement ambiguity; clarifying whether the contract targets a round number (£60,000), a percentage move from a reference date, or an absolute high/low would substantially alter implied odds across prediction platforms and traditional derivatives markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.