What price will Bitcoin hit May 25-31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action during the final week of May 2026 will determine whether the contract settles YES. The current 4% implied probability reflects a significant move requirement—the crowd is pricing in roughly a 1-in-25 chance that Bitcoin reaches an unspecified target price within that five-day window. Without a stated strike price in the market description, traders are effectively betting on volatility magnitude rather than directional conviction, a structural ambiguity that may explain the low probability despite Bitcoin's historical tendency to post 5–10% weekly swings.

Historical precedent suggests caution about dismissing tail-event probabilities outright. Bitcoin has hit fresh all-time highs in May during three of the past five years, and regulatory announcements—particularly from the US SEC or Federal Reserve—have triggered 8–15% moves within single weeks. The May settlement window coincides with the end of Q2 earnings season and potential central bank communications, both traditional volatility catalysts. Comparison across major prediction markets shows similar sub-5% odds, indicating broad consensus rather than sharp disagreement between platforms.

Traders monitoring this contract should track scheduled Federal Reserve communications, any spot Bitcoin ETF flows data, and geopolitical developments affecting institutional adoption. Recent volatility clustering around macroeconomic data releases suggests that a single high-impact announcement could rapidly shift implied probabilities. The settlement deadline of 1 June 2026 allows only one trading day after the window closes, leaving minimal time for post-event repricing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.