Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

Market context

Credible Finance is conducting a curated public sale on MetaDAO, aiming to secure between $2 million and $4 million in USDC commitments before the window closes in August 2026. The market currently prices a “Yes” resolution at 99%, implying the threshold will be met regardless of final refunds, as the settlement source tracks the peak “committed” figure displayed on the official sale page rather than net capital retained.

Historical MetaDAO curated raises suggest such high implied probabilities are warranted when institutional soft commits precede the public launch. Credible already holds $2.315 million in soft commits from institutional investors, while prior projects like Umber exceeded targets by 400%, drawing $3 million against a $750,000 goal [1][8]. Even volatile cases like Hurupay briefly crossed $2 million in final minutes before failing its $3 million target, illustrating how onchain mechanics can temporarily inflate commitment totals before refunds occur [3].

Traders should monitor the live commitment counter on the MetaDAO fundraise page, noting that any breach of the threshold before 23:59 ET on 31 August 2026 resolves the market to “Yes” permanently [1]. Key catalysts include Credible’s valuation cap of $9 million and the four-day participation window opening 13 July, powered by Solana [7][9]. With Paradigm’s recent $2.2 million investment in MetaDAO itself, platform liquidity and governance credibility remain strong, reducing execution risk for this raise [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.