Bitcoin price on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s noon ET Binance close on 22 May is the settlement point here, and the contract is currently being priced as a near-certainty on the “No” side, with the market showing 0% implied YES. That sits in sharp contrast to other venues: Polymarket’s separate Bitcoin price-on-the-date market has been anchored around the mid-$70,000s, with $76,000-$78,000 the clear favourite, while Robinhood’s comparable contract has quoted $77,600 or above at 72¢ and $77,700 or above at 40¢. The gap matters because this market is not asking for a broad daily range, but for a specific Binance 1-minute close at 12:00 ET, where a small miss versus the strike ladder can flip the result.

Recent price history shows why traders are treating the contract as highly sensitive to the exact noon print rather than to the day’s broader direction. Bitcoin has been moving inside a wide 2026 band, with Fortune putting BTC at $82,320 on 6 May and $81,022 the next day, while Statista showed a May 17 daily price of $78,135 after $79,069 on 16 May. SoFi’s history points to even larger swings earlier in the year, including a January high near $97,860 and an early-2026 low around $60,074. Against that backdrop, current exchange pricing below the Robinhood thresholds suggests the market is already assuming a relatively subdued outcome at the settlement window.

The main catalysts are the short-term ones that can move spot inside minutes: U.S. macro headlines, ETF flow updates, exchange-led volatility, and any late-session crypto risk-off move before the noon ET candle. Binance’s own 1-minute close is the only figure that matters for resolution, so cross-venue dislocations around the settlement time are more important than end-of-day prints elsewhere. Analysts’ longer-horizon forecasts remain much higher than the current contract logic, but they are not a clean guide to a one-minute candle; the tradable question is whether BTC can hold its level through the exact noon ET snapshot, not where it finishes the afternoon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.