Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution, using the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close as the single source of truth. The settlement window extends nearly eighteen months from publication, affording substantial time for macro conditions, regulatory shifts, and technological developments to reshape Bitcoin's valuation landscape. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price bracket or minimal trading activity; cross-platform comparison reveals whether this consensus holds across other prediction markets or if sportsbooks and derivatives exchanges price the event differently.

Historical precedent suggests Bitcoin's intra-day volatility at fixed timestamps often diverges from longer-term trend direction. The noon ET close on any given date captures a single moment within global trading hours, where US morning activity intersects with Asian evening markets. Over comparable eighteen-month windows, Bitcoin has experienced price swings exceeding 100%, making any single-point resolution inherently sensitive to near-term catalysts rather than fundamental drift. Prior resolution data from similar Binance-based markets shows execution risk around data feed delays or exchange maintenance, though Binance's infrastructure typically handles such events without disruption.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy announcements, Bitcoin's spot ETF flows (particularly any regulatory changes to US approval frameworks), and macroeconomic data releases scheduled for May 2026. Institutional adoption metrics and mining difficulty adjustments will influence longer-term positioning. The specific noon ET timestamp creates a dependency on US market hours; Asian or European price movements earlier that day could establish support or resistance levels that persist into the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.