July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

Market context

The July 2026 US CPI release will measure whether annual inflation eased further from **3.5%** in June, when the BLS reported the first monthly decline in headline CPI since April 2020 and core inflation at **2.6%** year on year.[4][6][18] Against that backdrop, a **2%** yes price on this contract implies a very low probability of the July print landing in the market’s defined settlement band, which is notably below the broader run of forecasts pointing to inflation staying in the mid-3% range rather than dropping sharply enough to satisfy the market condition.[5][8][9][14]

Recent comparable cases suggest traders should read this contract through the lens of volatility around the monthly CPI path, not just the year-on-year trend. June’s surprise downside in headline inflation and flat core reading pulled some analyst views lower, but several forecasters still expected sticky services inflation to keep the annual rate close to 3.8%-3.9% before the June print reset those assumptions.[4][6][9] The Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters also showed the 2026 headline CPI outlook moving up to **3.5%** for the year on a fourth-quarter basis, underscoring that consensus still expects inflation to remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target through 2026.[14]

The key catalyst is the BLS CPI report for **July 2026**, scheduled for **12 August 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET**, which will settle the market directly.[15][16] Traders will also watch whether energy prices, shelter, and core services keep the annual rate elevated after June’s sharp drop, because those components have been central to the recent swings in both analyst forecasts and market pricing.[2][3][7][9] No major divergence is visible between sportsbook-style pricing and prediction-market sentiment in the data provided, but the crowd’s **2%** yes level is materially more sceptical than the mainstream macro forecasts cited here.[1][5][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews July Inflation US - Annual across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.