Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Counter-Strike 2 upper bracket semifinal match between Inner Circle Esports and Sharks, scheduled for 8:00 AM ET on 24 June in the Super DraculaN Group A. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 50% for Inner Circle, mirroring Robinhood’s near-even pricing of 49¢ versus 51¢[3]. This equilibrium diverges meaningfully from historical head-to-head outcomes where Inner Circle previously defeated Sharks 2–1 in the BC Masters Championship, advancing to the lower bracket final after a tight Overpass decider[2]. Kalshi’s record of that earlier encounter shows Inner Circle winning 1–2 in maps with dominant scores on Anubis and Overpass, suggesting a proven tactical edge despite Sharks’ resilience on Mirage[1]. Such prior divergence between a 50% prediction-market line and a clear 2–1 historical win rate frames the current odds as unusually cautious, potentially underweighting Inner Circle’s established superiority.

Traders should monitor live bracket progression and any roster announcements before the match begins, as delays beyond seven days trigger a 50–50 settlement. The match starts at 12:00 UTC on Sofascore, with betting odds and head-to-head stats available in real time[5]. Recent tournament coverage on GosuGamers confirms the fixture is active within Super DraculaN Season 1, though no late roster changes have been reported yet[7]. Inner Circle’s total prize money from CS2 events stands at $52,075, indicating modest but consistent competitive presence[4]. Analyst consensus remains split, with no clear divergence from sportsbook lines, but the lack of recent news on team adjustments means the 50% line may hold until live play reveals tactical shifts. Watch for map-specific form, particularly on Anubis where Inner Circle previously dominated, as that could be the key catalyst for a decisive outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.