Next Claude Sonnet released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s next Claude Sonnet model must be publicly launched before the end of July 2026 to resolve this market as “Yes”. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 94%, reflecting strong confidence that the release will occur within the settlement window.

Historically, Anthropic has maintained a tight cadence for Sonnet updates: Claude 3.5 Sonnet arrived in June 2024, followed by 3.7 Sonnet in February 2025, and the latest major Sonnet iteration is expected to follow within 12 months. The deprecation of Sonnet 4 on 15 June 2026 [4] creates a clear operational catalyst, as users must migrate to a newer Sonnet variant to avoid API failures. This pressure aligns with community speculation that Sonnet 5 could emerge in early 2026, possibly January or February [2].

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official announcements, particularly any mention of Sonnet 5.0 or 4.7, and watch for migration guidance updates following the June deprecation. Recent coverage of the Sonnet 4 and Opus 4 retirement confirms the urgency for a successor [4]. With only one month left in the settlement window and no public Sonnet 5 release yet, the 94% probability appears robust but hinges on an imminent launch announcement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.