Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes, has experienced significant disruption since mid-2024 following Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and subsequent military interventions. The IMF Portwatch metric tracks daily vessel arrivals across all major cargo categories; a 7-day moving average of 60 or above would represent a return to pre-disruption baseline levels. Current transit volumes remain substantially depressed, with recent weekly averages hovering in the 30–45 range according to shipping data providers, meaning the market requires a near-doubling of traffic within the next eighteen months.

Historical precedent offers limited comfort for the YES position. The 2019 tanker attacks and subsequent tensions took approximately eight months to resolve, yet even that episode saw faster recovery than current trajectories suggest. The 2022 Suez Canal blockage resolved within days once the Ever Given was refloated, but Hormuz disruptions involve sustained regional instability rather than a single chargeable incident. The 2% implied probability reflects the structural nature of current threats: Houthi capabilities remain intact, regional tensions persist, and insurance premiums continue to deter some operators from transiting the strait.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from the International Maritime Organization regarding corridor safety certifications, any ceasefire agreements affecting Yemen, and quarterly shipping reports from major carriers. The US Navy's presence in the region and statements from regional powers about freedom of navigation will signal confidence shifts. Notably, some operators have permanently rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, a switch unlikely to reverse quickly even if immediate threats diminish, creating structural headwinds for rapid normalisation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.