Bitcoin price on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT at noon Eastern Time on 28 June 2026. Historical data from that day shows Bitcoin trading flat at $60,251 with the Fear & Greed Index plunging to 18, marking extreme fear despite price holding key lows across three sessions[6]. This sentiment-versus-price divergence has historically preceded recoveries, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above $56,000 starkly contradicts the Polymarket consensus, which assigns a 100% probability to the $58,000–$60,000 range[4]. While sportsbook lines often lag such rapid sentiment shifts, the prediction market's zero probability suggests a potential mispricing against the visible consolidation pattern where Bitcoin crossed the $60,000 benchmark earlier that morning[1].

Traders must monitor the resolution of the unresolved moving average compression from Friday, as the MA(25), MA(7), and MA(99) remain stacked within $400 of each other, creating a critical technical dependency for any breakout[6]. The primary catalyst is the weekend volume contraction, with BTC volume dropping 52%, which typically suppresses directional momentum but can also hide accumulation before a sharp move[6]. Analysts note that a breakdown below $86,700 would trigger large-scale liquidations, yet the immediate focus remains on whether the current low-conviction consolidation will resolve into a recovery or a deeper correction, a divergence not yet reflected in the 0% implied probability[2]. Recent market data confirms Bitcoin is effectively unchanged on the day, reinforcing the need to watch for a shift in the Fear & Greed Index from its cycle-low reading[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.