Bitcoin price on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 11 June 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with settlement tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a particular price bracket or minimal trading activity on this particular contract. Cross-platform comparison reveals divergence worth noting: whilst traditional cryptocurrency exchanges and spot-trading desks typically price near-term volatility using options markets, prediction markets on specific price points at defined timestamps operate under different liquidity dynamics and participant bases.

Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin's intraday volatility—particularly around noon ET—has ranged between 2–5% on ordinary trading days, though this varies substantially with macroeconomic announcements and Federal Reserve communications. The June 2026 settlement window falls outside any scheduled FOMC meetings or major cryptocurrency network events currently on the calendar, reducing exogenous shock risk relative to comparable historical periods.

Traders monitoring this contract should track developments in spot-market liquidity on Binance itself, regulatory announcements affecting US cryptocurrency trading, and any significant shifts in institutional Bitcoin holdings reported through SEC filings or major fund disclosures. Recent volatility clustering around inflation data releases and central bank policy signals suggests that macroeconomic calendar events in the weeks preceding 11 June could materially influence the probability distribution, even if no specific catalyst is scheduled for that date.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.