Bitcoin price on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin is trading in a relatively tight band into the settlement date, with recent spot prints clustered around the mid-$60,000s: YCharts shows a daily Bitcoin level of 64,608.71 on 6 August, Investing.com lists 64,073.5 with a previous close of 63,900.8, and Fortune reported 64,744.92 in early Eastern Time on 7 August.[3][6][17] That leaves the market’s 0% YES implied probability looking notably conservative against both the live tape and third-party forecast models, several of which are centred well above the current price, including CoinCodex at 67,668 for 9 August and Changelly at 67,262.07 for the same date.[15][13]

The historical frame is that Bitcoin often produces a wide daily range even when the broader trend is flat, so this contract is really a one-candle close test rather than a directional monthly call.[2][6] OpenBitcoin’s August 2026 data show Bitcoin ending 7 August at 64,878 after a month that rose 3.3%, while Polymarket’s own neighbouring August-date contract had the leading bracket around 62,000–64,000, with 64,000–66,000 close behind, underscoring how clustered expectations are around the current spot zone rather than around an outsized move.[2][8]

For traders, the main catalysts are the usual weekend liquidity effects, any sudden macro headlines that hit BTC risk appetite, and whether price holds above the nearby 64,000 area into the 12:00 ET candle used for settlement. Analyst commentary is split but still broadly range-based: Yahoo Finance cited a “quiet, range-bound week” near 65,300 and a bearish structure unless Bitcoin reclaims 82,931, while CoinDesk-style and broader market data still show Bitcoin well within a 2026 range that has already stretched from roughly 60,074 to 97,861.[19][18] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style and prediction-market pricing are not aligned here because the market is effectively saying a qualifying Binance close is highly unlikely, even though external price-watch sources are already clustered around the settlement neighbourhood.[8][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.