MLB: Triples Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 MLB regular season triples race is being priced with **Corbin Carroll** as a clear favourite, with the crowd at about **71%** on Polymarket and roughly the same on Kalshi, while the main challengers sit in single digits. MLB’s official stat pages are the relevant settlement reference for the category, so the market is effectively asking whether Carroll can hold a strong early lead through the full season rather than whether he merely has the best burst in June.[1][4][5]

Historically, triples leader markets tend to reward players with a blend of speed, contact quality and ballpark luck, because triples totals are far less repeatable year to year than homers or RBI. That makes a 71% implied probability quite high for a stat that often swings on a few batted-ball runs or minor injuries, and it suggests the market is leaning heavily on Carroll’s profile rather than any meaningful gap in raw season-to-date volume. Fantasy projection boards also keep him at the top, but by a much thinner margin than the price implies, which is the main cross-platform divergence to note.[6][10]

Traders should watch for three things: Carroll’s health and playing time, the pace of the nearest runners-up on the official leaderboard, and whether any rival accumulates triples through an unusually favourable schedule of gaps, outfield conditions or park effects. MLB’s live stat tables can move quickly as totals change, while sportsbook markets are unlikely to offer a direct triples-leader line at all, leaving prediction-market pricing as the main real-time barometer.[4][7][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track MLB: Triples Leader on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.