Next Claude Opus released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s next Claude Opus model, explicitly named Opus, is expected to launch publicly before the end of 2026, a timeline that aligns with the company’s recent release cadence. The current crowd-implied probability of 95% YES reflects strong confidence that a qualifying Opus variant—such as Opus 4.9 or 5.0—will be accessible to the general public within the settlement window ending 31 December 2026.

Historically, Anthropic has maintained a tight release cycle for Opus models, with the gap between Opus 4.7 and 4.8 shrinking to just 42 days by May 2026, the shortest interval recorded so far [1][2]. This accelerating pace suggests that another Opus refresh is likely within weeks rather than months, reinforcing the high probability assigned by the market. Past suspensions of higher-tier models like Fable 5 and Mythos 5 due to export controls have not disrupted the Opus line, which remains the stable general-purpose flagship [4].

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official announcements and API updates, particularly any mention of a point-bump Opus refresh or restoration of suspended Mythos-class models, which could precede a new Opus release [4]. With no confirmed next model named as of late June 2026, the next move is expected to be swift, consistent with the six-to-eight-week flagship cadence observed in 2026 [4]. The divergence between prediction-market odds and analyst consensus is minimal, as both align on the likelihood of an imminent Opus launch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.